Monsoon likely to be below normal this year, says IMD (Live Mint)

IMD says 68% chance of below-normal to deficient rains; clearer picture after second projection in mid-June

New Delhi: India could experience a second consecutive year of sub-par monsoon rainfall, according to the first forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), amplifying worries for policymakers and farmers after last year’s drought-like conditions and unseasonal showers over the past two months.

Poor rains could potentially stoke inflation and worsen the agrarian economy, already under pressure in the aftermath of last year’s below-average rainfall, the end of the global commodity super cycle and the reduction of social sector spending. The rural crisis has also affected consumer spending, hurting sales of a range of products.

Below-par rainfall could also halt the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary easing efforts, hurting a fledgling economic and industrial recovery.

It isn’t certain that the rains will be poor, though. Monday’s forecast is IMD’s first and a clearer picture will emerge when it makes its second projection in mid-June.

“Quantitatively, monsoon rainfall is likely to be 93% of the long period average (LPA),” science minister Harsh Vardhan told a press conference to release the IMD forecast.

The monsoon is considered below normal when the rainfall range is 90-96% of the LPA or the 50-year average of 89cm rainfall for the June-September period. The four-month monsoon season is crucial, with its onset kickstarting the sowing season for summer crops in the country. India receives 75% of its annual rainfall in this period and more than half the country’s farmland is rain-fed.

Details of the forecast reveal that IMD believes there is a 68% probability of a below-normal to deficient monsoon rainfall this year.

The main reason for the subdued forecast is fear of an onset of the El Niño weather phenomenon—the warming of the waters of the Pacific Ocean which triggers atmospheric changes that influence the progress of the monsoon rains over India. IMD has pegged the probability of this happening at 70%.

The threat of El Niño is particularly worrying in terms of the spatial distribution of rainfall. Last year too, when the El Niño phenomenon occurred, it led to uneven distribution of the monsoon across the countries, with some regions facing drought.

“Keeping this forecast in mind, all government departments, state governments will be alerted, along with cabinet secretary and Prime Minister’s Office. Preparations will be made proactively by all concerned departments,” Vardhan added. According to simulations run by the IMD, north-west and central India are likely to receive less rainfall compared with the rest of the country.

Last year, almost a quarter of the country’s area, including Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, East Madhya Pradesh, Telangana and parts of Maharashtra faced drought-like conditions.

“We do not know about distribution of rainfall as yet, but this forecast definitely means some areas will face drier -than-normal conditions. Like last year, we will be working on sensitizing all state departments of agriculture. If rainfall is indeed below normal and normal crop cannot be grown, then we will be advising farmers to use of short-term and medium-term crops,” said 
N. Chattopadhyay, deputy director general of the agricultural meteorology division at IMD in Pune.

IMD’s June forecast will also estimate the rainfall for July and August, the spatial distribution of rains and the advance over broad geographical divisions such as the north-west, north-east, south and central India..

“First estimate is a preliminary estimate and one cannot place too much credibility there. But this is definitely discouraging and will be a setback for the agricultural sector,” said Ramesh Chand, professor at the National Centre for Agricultural Economics and Policy Research.

“In the case of Northwest India, below-normal rainfall may not have adverse impact as it is well irrigated; but central India is rain-fed and a bad spell could have adverse impact there” he added. Chand, however, cautioned that one should wait for data on distribution of rainfall and onset of monsoon before coming to conclusions about the monsoon season.

Rating agency Crisil Ltd released a note after the IMD forecast and said, “A normal monsoon is crucial to push economic growth this year, given weak investment climate, tepid export growth and fragile consumption.”

It is also potentially inflationary, especially with respect to food prices.

Retail inflation eased in March to a three-month low at 5.17% as food prices softened, despite the damage to the spring harvest, raising hopes of further monetary easing by the central bank in its next policy review in June.

IMD’s forecast differs from that of private forecaster Skymet, which has forecast a normal monsoon despite the possibility of El Niño forming in the summer.

“This forecast is one indication of monsoon rainfall. As far as agriculture is concerned, distribution is equally important and we don’t have that handle on rainfall distribution in this forecast,” said L.S. Rathore, director general of IMD.

IMD takes into account five predictors in its forecast. Out of these five, equatorial Pacific warm water volume, or El Niño, is found to have unfavourable conditions. Historically, out of the last 14 El Niño years, eight saw a bad monsoon, so one should not jump to conclusion, claimed Rathore.

“El Niño is weak now, but it has to be monitored to see how it evolves. Whether it strengthens or weakens, it will have a heavy impact,” said D.S. Pai, head of the long-range forecasting division at IMD. “As per present conditions, the warming in the Indian Ocean is more than normal and the Indian Ocean Dipole is negative,” Pai added.

A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is associated with more rainfall in the country.